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200113 | Denmark’s CDC thinks new B117 #SARSCoV2 variant is so much more contagious (R +0.4 to +0.7) | Scenarios for developmen

Denmark’s CDC thinks new B117 #SARSCoV2 variant is so much more contagious (R +0.4 to +0.7) & inevitable that **if any country does not crush the R<0.7 now**, we will be completely #COVID19 screwed by Feb/March.

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Scenarios for development in Denmark

If the current contact number of 0.96 does not change, the number of daily infections is expected to exceed 4,000 by the end of February.

If, on the other hand, it is possible to lower the contact number to 0.8 for the old variants, the infection can be kept under control for a longer period, after which it will increase again.

If the increase in infection is to be completely curbed, however, it is necessary to reduce the contact number for the old variants to 0.7 (corresponding to 1.05 for the English variant). It is against this background that SSI recommends further restrictions and measures. We managed to lower the contact number to about that level during the closure in March and April 2020.

Expected number of infected depending on the contact number, 1 January 2021 to 31 March 2021"

Expected number of infected with cluster B.1.1.7, depending on the number of contacts, 1 January 2021 to 31 March 2021 (Source: Statens Serum Institut)

 

(Source: Statens Serum Institut)

It is the health authorities' assessment that it is crucial to turn the epidemic curve around and get the contact number significantly below 1 in the coming weeks, so that the infection rates are as low as possible when cluster B.1.1.7 becomes the dominant virus in mid-February. As large parts of society have been shut down, it is expected that infection can occur to a greater extent in connection with gatherings inside and outside the home, and that tightening the assembly ban from 10 to 5 people in the public space is a necessary measure to prevent serious spread of infection.


via Eric Feigl-Ding     @DrEricDing

Epidemiologist & Health Economist. Senior Fellow, FAS. Fmr 16 yrs @Harvard
. Health & justice advocate. COVID19 reports from Jan’20.

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Cornwall & IoS COVID 19 Cases: 7 Day Rolling Average
Expected number of infected with cluster B.1.1.7, depending on the number of contacts, 1 January 2021 to 31 March 2021 (Source: Statens Serum Institut)