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230118 | Why George Eustice is Standing Down - 17.4% drop in votes 16% swing, set to lose out to Labour's challenger Perran Moon

A recent finding by UK Polling Report predicted Mr Eustice is set to lose his seat to Labour with a 17.3% drop in votes.
 
Why George Eustice is Standing Down
18 Jan @ 13:03
Callum Jones

Despite the deadline for Conservative MPs declaring their decisions to stand down long-passing, George Eustice has now become the latest to join the ranks of quitting Conservatives. Considering the current state of national polling, it's difficult to imagine this decision was not at least informed by his electoral prospects.

On national swing, according to our model, Eustice is set to lose out to Labour's challenger Perran Moon. The current swing is expected to be around 16%, with Moon securing a 15% majority in a seat which had previously been Conservative. His successor certainly faces a difficult challenge.

This can be further contextualised when taken alongside our previous analysis of Conservatives deciding not to contest the next election.

Eustice, mapped in red, has a majority on the lower end of other Tory quitters, whilst being above the average age. His decision therefore seems unsurprising when he is in a more precarious position, and is further along in his career, than other Conservatives standing down. The combination of these factors is reflected in his own resignation statement, where he says "I will also be 53 and will have time to do, perhaps, one more thing in life", before reflecting on the historic marginality of his seat.

George Eustice told the Commons that overall the UK "gave away far too much for far too little in return".
On national swing, according to our model, Eustice is set to lose out to Labour's challenger Perran Moon. The current swing is expected to be around 16%, with Moon securing a 15% majority in a seat which had previously been Conservative
Eustice, mapped in red, has a majority on the lower end of other Tory quitters, whilst being above the average age. His decision therefore seems unsurprising when he is in a more precarious position, and is further along in his career, than other Conserva

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